基于农户行为理论的农村劳动力非农就业影响因素分析

本文以调研问卷为基础,从农户行为视角,运用Probit模型,分析家庭特征、户主特征、兵地不同体制、区域农村金融发展水平与就业环境对新疆农户非农就业的影响。研究发现：在家庭特征中,16岁以上劳动力数量、家庭在校子女数、家庭实际作物种植面积、农业收入占比对农户影响显著;个人特征中,受教育年限对农户非农就业有正向影响;不同体制下,地方农户相比兵团职工非农就业意愿更高;区域农村金融发展水平方面,仅“是否了解小额信贷政策”对农户非农就业具有负向影响;就业环境因素中,距离乡镇集市的距离对农户具有负向影响。文章最后提出了应加强农村社会保障,培训农户职业技能,减少兵团对职工外出务工的约束,增强金融机构在农户自主创业过程中的资金支持力度,增加农村地区的交通基础设施建设等政策建议。     

目标市场负向需求冲击影响企业跨国并购的机理与实证*

本文对目标市场负向需求冲击对中国企业跨国并购的影响进行了理论和实证分析。研究发现：第一,目标市场负向需求冲击与跨国并购发生的概率呈正相关关系;第二,目标企业的选择要么是生产成本最高的企业,要么是生产成本最低的企业。最后,本文依据核心结论提出政策建议。     

Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models which are based on momentum, drift and ageing, and compare them with alternatives which take the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating into account. Using data on US bond issuing firms, as rated by Fitch, over the years 2000 to 2007, we compare the performances of these models for predicting the ratings both in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that both initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.     

基于行为决策理论的宅基地退出影响因素分析——甘肃省654户调查数据的实证

文章根据甘肃省654户农户问卷调查数据,基于行为决策理论,运用Probit模型和结构方程模型揭示了农户宅基地退出的影响因素。研究结果表明:农户的文化程度差异、是否在外非农务工、是否有城镇户口等自身特征的不同,会使他们对退出宅基地的态度产生差异;农户的从众示范效应和退出宅基地后不确定性风险对农户宅基地退出意愿影响最大,是影响农户退出宅基地意愿的主导因素;宅基地的禀赋效应也显著影响农户宅基地退出。相关政策建议:(1)从社保、就业和宅基地退出后生活支出三个方面减少农户宅基地退出后的不确定性风险,从而消除其宅基地退出后顾之忧;(2)利用农户的从众示范效应分批退出;(3)采取多样化的退出补偿方式。     

Analysing passenger behaviour towards the catering industry: Implications for airport management

This research note seeks to provide the most detailed analysis yet of passenger behaviour towards the airport catering industry. With the broadest sample to date among similar studies, namely 37,000 passengers surveyed at 8 different airports with 38 explanatory variables, a large number of conclusions have been drawn. The most important of these is that the factors that most influence a passenger's using a catering establishment during his/her stay at an airport are his/her physiological needs and social reasons. However, contrary to what was anticipated a priori, socioeconomic status only has a moderate influence, while having a wide range and variety of foodstuffs on offer does not result in passengers consuming more. It is also observed that low-cost airline passengers consume less than those of traditional airlines, probably due to the stress related to boarding with these types of airlines.     

Tests for zero inflation in a bivariate zero‐inflated Poisson model

The score test statistics for testing zero inflation and covariance parameter are proposed in the bivariate zero‐inflated Poisson (BZIP) regression model. The Monte Carlo studies show that the score test and likelihood ratio test for testing zero inflation underestimate the nominal significance level, while the score test for covariance parameter keeps the significance level close to the nominal one. To overcome this nominal level underestimation, we propose a bootstrap method of the score test for the testing problem of zero inflation. An empirical example with covariates is provided to illustrate the results. In addition, score test for zero inflation is also proposed in the BZIP model, which allows a flexible dependence structure using copula.     

Construction of Exact Simultaneous Confidence Bands for a Simple Linear Regression Model

A simultaneous confidence band provides a variety of inferences on the unknown components of a regression model. There are several recent papers using confidence bands for various inferential purposes; see for example, Sun et al. (1999) , Spurrier (1999) , Al‐Saidy et al. (2003) , Liu et al. (2004) , Bhargava & Spurrier (2004) , Piegorsch et al. (2005) and Liu et al. (2007) . Construction of simultaneous confidence bands for a simple linear regression model has a rich history, going back to the work of Working & Hotelling (1929) . The purpose of this article is to consolidate the disparate modern literature on simultaneous confidence bands in linear regression, and to provide expressions for the construction of exact 1 ?α level simultaneous confidence bands for a simple linear regression model of either one‐sided or two‐sided form. We center attention on the three most recognized shapes: hyperbolic, two‐segment, and three‐segment (which is also referred to as a trapezoidal shape and includes a constant‐width band as a special case). Some of these expressions have already appeared in the statistics literature, and some are newly derived in this article. The derivations typically involve a standard bivariate t random vector and its polar coordinate transformation.     

Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates

We revisit the effects of spending on student performance using data from the state of Michigan. In addition to exploiting a dramatic change in funding in the mid-1990s and subsequent nonsmooth changes, we propose nonlinear panel data models that recognize the bounded nature of the pass rate. Importantly, we show how to estimate average partial effects, which can be compared across many different models (linear and nonlinear) under different assumptions and estimated using many different methods. We find that spending has nontrivial and statistically significant effects, although the diminishing effect is not especially pronounced.     

人民币均衡汇率错位对进出口的影响——基于协整理论和二元选择模型的实证分析

本文基于协整理论，运用单位根检验、二步法、误差修正模型和二元选择Probit和Logit模型，对人民币均衡汇率错位对进、出口的影响进行了实证分析。本文的创新之处：在模型中引入了反映我国“二元经济结构”特征的三个控制变量——工农业对GDP的贡献度之差，城乡居民家庭恩格尔系数之差，第一产业和第二产业人口构成之差参与回归检验，显著性很强，使得模型更可信和稳定。结论表明：人民币均衡汇率错位对进、出口均有不同程度的负面影响，对进口的负面影响稍大于出口；人民币均衡汇率错位对进口向长期均衡水平的调整比出口更加有利；人民币均衡汇率高估错位幅度越大，越有利于进口；低估错位幅度越大，越有利于出口。